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Monday, March 26, 2007

【イラン攻撃の序曲か?】

3月23日にイランがイギリスの領海侵犯を理由に15名の英国兵士を捕縛したニュースと、その後の展開は、色んな意味で大きな意味を持っているような気がする。

Iran seizes UK vessels and crew (BBC.COM)

Iran has seized three UK navy vessels and eight crew members inside its territorial waters near the Iraq border, UK defence officials confirmed.

Seizure unjustified, Iran warned (BBC.COM)

"We have certainly sent the message back to them very clearly indeed. They should not be under any doubt at all about how seriously we regard this act, which is unjustified and wrong."

Blair: Seizure of UK troops by Iran 'very serious' (CNN.COM)

BERLIN, Germany (AP) -- British Prime Minister Tony Blair said Sunday that the 15 British sailors and Royal Marines captured by Iran were not in Iranian waters and warned Tehran that Britain viewed their fate as a "fundamental" issue.

"I want to get it resolved in as easy and diplomatic a way as possible," he said, but added he hoped the Iranians "understood how fundamental an issue this is for the British government." (Watch Blair react to seizure Video)

Blair's comment, at celebrations for the 50th birthday of the European Union, follows British and European Union demands for Iran to release the 15 naval personnel seized at gunpoint in disputed waters between Iran and Iraq on Friday. (Watch how British sailors and marines were seized Video)

Security Council approves new sanctions on Iran (CNN.COM)

UNITED NATIONS (AP) -- The United Nations Security Council was preparing to vote Saturday afternoon on new sanctions to pressure Iran into suspending uranium enrichment.

Major powers were expecting unanimous approval.

Angry Iran reduces nuclear access (BBC.COM)

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said separately that the sanctions were illegal and Iran would not stop its nuclear work "even for one second".

The sanctions block Iranian arms exports and freeze assets of anyone involved in nuclear and missile work.

Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons, insisting its work is peaceful.

"After this illegal resolution was passed against Iran last night [Saturday], it forced the government to... suspend parts of its activities with the [International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA]," government spokesman Gholamhossein Elham said on state television.

Iran trimming cooperation with nuclear watchdog (CNN.COM)

The move from Tehran was a gesture in apparent retaliation for the sanctions unanimously approved Saturday by the U.N. Security Council because of Tehran's refusal to stop enriching uranium. (Watch iran's foreign minister reject the vote Video)

The sanctions, which send a strong message to Tehran that its defiance will leave it increasingly isolated and warn of even tougher penalties ahead, were immediately rejected by Iran which said it had no intention of suspending its enrichment program.

もしかしたら・・・、イギリスは意図的にイランを挑発する為に、わざと領海侵犯したのではないだろうか?

そして敢えてイランの反発を促して国連安保理の制裁決議に対する対決姿勢を強めさせ、国際社会に「イラン攻撃もやむなし」というイメージを植えつけた上で、かねてからの噂どおりイランへの攻撃を開始するというシナリオなのかもしれない。

まさに“Deja Vu”な感じじゃないか?

そして実にタイムリーに、中国経由でロシアから「アメリカが4月6日にイランを先制攻撃する」という情報をリークした記事が配信された。

ロシアのマスコミがアメリカは4月6日にイランに対する先制攻撃を開始するとスッパ抜く <陳(Chin)胡痒(Kokai)のWorld view>

【概要】米国は現地時間の4月6日未明にイランに対する「外科手術的攻撃」を開始することを決定した模様とロシアのマスコミが相次いで報道。その理由は西側社会が復活祭の前夜であり、金曜日でイスラム教徒が仕事を休みだからというもの。ロシア情報筋が入手した米軍の作戦計画によれば、攻撃は6日の朝4時から夕方4時までの12時間連続して行われる。これによってイラン国内の20か所の核施設と、ペルシャ湾のイラン海軍艦艇、イラン軍の指揮通信施設を粉砕する。アメリカ側の考えでは、イランの軍隊は現場に権限が与えられておらず、ロシアのように上級司令部に権限が集中しているため、指揮中枢を破壊することによって、末端の部隊は無力化できるとのこと。

とりあえずこれからの数日間、イランとイギリス、そしてアメリカの動きから目が離せなくなりそうだ。

March 26, 2007 in Business, Current Affairs, Politics | Permalink

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